Episode 1 Transcription Release

Episode Transcription

Show Me Sun Money - Episode 1 - Myth of the Florida Man

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Welcome to the Show Me Sun Money a podcast about how money is made in Florida retail. I'm your host Britta Eriksson. So have you been on I-75 lately or any interstate in Florida? Doesn't it feel so good. You can just feel the traffic levels sort of simmer down and the tension has just gone away. It's fantastic right now, the weather is beautiful

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And of course, it's April, right? We're all feeling really good about being a local and being a Floridian, but we start to think the traffic is lower, we're going into summer. And with that, that means retail sales are on their decline to our lowest volume months. We've reached our seasonal high in almost every market. And we are going to start shifting down to much lower sales volumes, where it gets really hard for a lot of people to make it and keep their doors open in August and September.

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This happens for all kinds of retail, whether it be a store, a retail shop, a restaurant, a gym, a salon, an entertainment business, anything that would operate in a shopping center doesn't survive just on the locals here. The people like you and me who live here. It survives on a multitude of different factors, many factors that many, many people misunderstand and underestimate.

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They plan their inventories wrong, they plan their real estate wrong, and they miss out on who the true consumer is, who is spending the money at their stores. So that's what we're here to talk about. This episode is called The Myth of the Florida Man. And we're talking about the importance of the local community versus other factors that exist in Florida and how they influence Florida retail.

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So what type of influence are we talking about when we start to have this conversation? People think that it is limited to Disney or the beaches and it's this couple percent. And that's not what we see when we look at the data, when we have really good data. And when I've looked at customer level data, we see that those influences of out of area sales are huge.

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And even the most suburban markets in Florida markets you wouldn't assume have large outside of area influences. And we look at those sales and we're seeing on the low end, I've seen about 20%. I've seen on the higher end over 50%, I've even seen 70% out of area sales. And obviously for different users, this is going to affect them differently.

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And other people may have a different response to this. And in different markets it may be different. So I want to have this conversation. I'm not coming to you as an expert. I'm not coming to give you advice on how to operate your business. But I believe it's a topic that we deserve to give a little bit more attention.

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I have this conversation very often with different clients when we're looking at location decisions, when we're looking at the markets and analyzing who the consumer is and how they can do better in the market, where they can locate to do better. You know, we look at this and we have the same conversation and it's very similar, whether it be a local mom and pop shop who's relocating to Florida and opening their business here, maybe from New York or Chicago, Ohio, even Georgia, or whether it's a national retailer and they're looking to open stores in the state, I find that they try to use this equation that they've had success with these are very smart business

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operators and they've operated in other parts of the country where they found the success and they apply the same equation here. But they're so confused why their results are different and they don't understand the magnitude of these other factors that exist in Florida and why it matters to look at them. So it's no secret that we have the most visited theme park in the entire world located in Florida.

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And of course, with that theme park with three additional sister theme parks, with them having two additional water parks, with there being a lot more theme parks, a lot of people come to Florida and do go to theme parks. It is a main driver of tourism and a lot of tourism dollars are spent in the communities around those theme parks.

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So what kind of numbers are we talking about related just to theme parks to those areas? According to theme entertainment association, we have 77 million visitors at Florida theme parks out of the top 11 theme parks in North America. We have eight of them located in Florida. The other three are located in California. And that makes sense, right? We both have really good weather.

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We can operate year round and we get more sales, more dollars, more visits at our theme parks because their weather allows for it. We have the top four water parks in the entire country, but tourism in Florida is much more than just theme parks or beaches. The sheer mass of tourism spreads out and filters outside these areas because there's so much of it and it filters to local communities throughout the state because the main driver of tourism in Florida is our weather and the sunshine.

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I should take a moment. I want you to reframe your thoughts and what you know about tourism and what you think you know about tourism and think about how your friends and family visit you. If you are a Floridian, if you are living here, especially if you are from somewhere up north, that is cold. Your friends and family want to come here.

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They now have an end to come here, right? They know you. You live here and you probably have people who come down and either stay with you or stay near you. And you probably don't live in the beach community or in the theme park community. So I'll tell you a little story about when we first moved down here.

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I was a kid. We are from Chicago, and pretty much everyone else we know still lives in Chicago at that point. They still lived in the cold and the snow and the gray and the drear. And my parents were just done with it. They were done with raising small kids there and they wanted they wanted to move to Florida.

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So once we moved here, they were very, very proud that we moved to Florida. And of course, on our first Christmas card, my parents, you know, really show off that we live in Florida. So me and my brother in the pool just every day and my parents take this really cute picture, I still have it of me and my brother swimming in the pool during December, when it's snowing up north.

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And of course, they do the *** move and they send that to all their friends who are in Chicago and market saying how great it is here and *** it is where you live. So then all of them get this card and they get this letter. That we swim in the pool on Christmas Day without a heater. Your kids are in parkas, you're in snow suits that you can't even put your arms and you have to shovel snow.

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You can't even drive down the road for work. You know what, our kids don't even have to wear clothes. They're just out like half naked, running around the backyard in bathing suits just all the time. We don't need clothes down here. It's that warm. It's that much better. So this entices people to start coming down and visiting us. And we start getting visitors.

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And they start coming down and they start seeing us more because they want to come stay with us. Right? I like to think that I was just like a super cute kid and they want to like, come visit with me. But no, not really. They wanted to come down. They wanted to sit there where it wasn't snowing and just enjoy being outside again, having some sunshine, doing all the activities that they can't.

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Four months up north. Existing residents, whether they be full time or part time, reiterate tourism. They reiterate an opportunity for people to come down to visit you, to spend money in those communities. We have 22 million people roughly living in Florida full time, plus seasonal residents that are not included in that number. People want to come see you.

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They want to come see their friends and family. Think about the last time that someone you knew came and visited you and how you spent money in your local community and the communities around you, where you went out to dinner, where you went shopping, tourism is far more widespread than theme park corridors and beaches. So we have to think and we have to understand how it affects these different communities and how we can capture more of those dollars that may be available in those communities.

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Let's talk about the sheer mass of tourism we experience here in Florida. It's simply crazy. Visit Florida does a lot to tract the volume of tourism. They’re primarily focused on out-of-state travel and out-of-country travel. So people who live somewhere else full time and are coming down here only for vacation. So when we talk about these volume numbers, they exclude Florida residents and if you are like me, you spend a lot of time vacationing in your own state.

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There's so much to do here. We go to Disney World all the time. We go to different areas. You go to South Florida, you go to Jacksonville, you travel throughout the state and have staycations within our own communities all the time. And that creates a whole other layer of out of area sales that aren't tracked by these numbers. So what does this information from Visit Florida Research actually tell us?

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So when we look at this number, they're estimating $125 billion of visitor spending. Tourism was the second largest employer. Retail was a third. In 2023, 135 million people were estimated to visit Florida. Again, not including any travel from full time or part time residents. In those numbers, 135 million. Our population, as we just talked about, is 22 million roughly.

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It's like 22.6 right now is the estimation. So this is roughly six times the amount of people who live here full time visit here each year, Visit Florida. Research also tracks enplanements. And if you don't know what enplanements are, it means people getting on a plane. And so that tells us the volumes that we have at our airports, which are very, very high as well.

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They estimate that we had 108 million people getting on planes in Florida in one year. And this makes a lot of sense when you look at the concentration of major international airports that we have in Florida. You can go a couple of hours each direction and get to another major airport. We have MCO in Orlando, we have Miami, we have Fort Lauderdale.

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We have an airport in West Palm. We have our RSW in Fort Myers. We have TPA in Tampa, my favorite, we have Jacksonville. There's other airports everywhere here. The International Trade Association tracks foreign travel, and we have a lot of that too in Florida. We are the number one destination in the United States for foreign travelers, number one.

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So of all 50 states, they choose to go here the most. But it's not just the most. 30% of foreign travelers, 30%. So they have 50 states to choose from and they choose to come to Florida 30% of the time. We have a lot of cruise activity in Florida. Cruise Lines International Association tracks the amount of cruise activity and their numbers are just mind blowing.

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We have three of the four busiest ports in the entire world, not our country, not our continent, the entire world. Three of the four busiest cruise ports are in Florida. We have Port Miami. We have Port Canaveral. We have Port Everglades, which is in Fort Lauderdale, very close proximity to Port Miami. We also have another port in Tampa. We have half of all cruises in our entire country.

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leave from Florida; 53% of cruises in our country leave from Florida. They estimate we have 11 million passengers in 2022. So why do cruises matter? I mean, people are getting on a boat and they're going somewhere else. And I didn't understand this until I worked on a on a development of a port. And when I was working on the development, we learned that cruises operate much different than other travel, that people generally have to come down and create this buffer so that they don't miss the cruise. It is not like an airplane.

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There's not like one in a couple of hours or even the next day. If you miss your cruise, you miss the cruise. So people come down, they come down a couple of days before; they create that buffer. They enjoy other things in the community. And that way, if their airplane plane is delayed or a storm happens and they can't drive down or whatever the reason may be, they don't actually miss the cruise.

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So generally, a couple of days before the cruises is or even longer, there is more tourism that happens in our local communities from the people who come down and go on cruises. So cruises are pretty influential. They're driving a mass of people that are relative to half are full time population, right. 11 million people. We have 22 million people living in the state.

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So roughly a mass of half of our full time population is coming down here every year to go on cruises. And then they're taking some time before that cruise and spending more money in our local communities. We just talked about the magnitude of tourism that exists in Florida and how it filters into local communities. So why can't we see this information on a demographic report?

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Why is this information missing? But we often have people come to us and say, I have travel spending information in my demographics. I can see how much money is being spent on travel. What you're saying is wrong, but that that isn't what that's saying. And so the government had abandoned tracking the destination spending of travel a while ago.

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It was highly aired. It was very expensive. And you can think about how hard it would be to answer those questions, right. If I had a list of all the different places I went to throughout the year and I had an answer where I went and how much I spent on each category in all these different areas. I don't know if I would be able to do that without spending a lot of time, and I probably wouldn't spend the time to do that in turn in that survey.

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But I could probably tell you how much I budget it for the entire year on travel. And so that's what information is shown typically in demographics related to travel. We're talking about the expenditures of someone who lives in that community and what they would spend on all their travel budget for the entire year to a variety of destinations.

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So say it's $1,000 per household. What that information then, would tell us that whatever community you are looking at, say you're looking at Tampa, that the people who live in Tampa spend on average $1,000 per year when they travel to other places. And that may be one trip that they go to and maybe five trips that they go to.

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It's just the total budget for travel. So you can look at it as a wealth component, but it doesn't tell us anything about the amount of money being spent by tourists in these communities. So we have these full time residents and we have tourism, so we have people who come down on vacation, but we also have a very large population of people who only live here part time.

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Some people call them seasonal residents, some people call them winter residents. We call them snowbirds, and they all tend to come down around the same time because the weather is particularly nicer here than in other parts of the country during this time. So we tend to find people who have two homes now. They may rent their home down here or they may have a second home that they own.

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So but they're able to afford a full time resident somewhere else, and then they're able to come down here and either pay a very high rental rate during that time of year, at sometimes three times what an annual rental would be just for that time of year or to own a second home that they're only using part of the year.

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So these people generally have a higher wealth than we would assume they would have a higher wealth than what a lot of the income would show. And we see them staying for somewhere between 4 to 6 months typically. They generally want to get home before that six month mark just so that they can keep their residency in their other state and wherever they may live or other country.

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So generally we see people not staying past that six month part. We start seeing people start to come down here in October. That's when it starts to get a little cold in other places, in other parts of the country. And we start seeing people come down here at that time of year. Fall is very pleasant and very nice, especially once we get into November.

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By November, normally people are have had their first cold snap where they live and they then are more motivated to be here. So some additional people come down then. But some people wait, though, until after Thanksgiving, after the December holidays and then you really start to see people down here in January. And by January, it's a very cold in other parts of the country.

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So after the new year, we start to see the largest mass of people come here. So between January and through April, is our very high peak time to be here. During that time, we start seeing people go back around April, starts getting a little nicer, spring starts and it's not as cold in other parts of the country and everyone talks about it being around Easter, which the timing is true, but it's really around tax day.

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A lot of people want to be back home. They want to look at their records and their paperwork that are back up at their full time residence. So after April, some people stay through May and it does start to get very quiet by June. It gets a lot hotter here, a lot more unpleasant for some people, and it is a lot nicer in other parts of the country where they may live.

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So we start seeing them go back. It's also starts to be hurricane season here because of the heat. And then during summer, we don't have a lot of tourism traffic unless the market is dictated by people who have children who are in school. And you start seeing people come down, say, for Disney World or for a beach trip with their family because they are focused on the school year.

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But the mass of the seasonal resident, Right. The mass of the seasonal resident that comes down are here during that winter time frame. So between October and April and primarily between January and April. So as we get into summer, we do see in most markets it gets very quiet and it gets hard for a lot of these areas in the a lot of the businesses, the retailers and the restaurants and all the different businesses in a shopping center to make it during that time of year.

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And as we get to August and as we get to September, those are typically the lowest volume months in Florida for most businesses. And it gets really hard to sort of make it through that time before the mass of the seasonal residents come back down or start to come back down in October. And obviously this varies by market in some markets are more affected by seasonal residents.

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It used to be that if you were down south you had the most effect of the seasonal residents. And then as you went further up the state and went further north and as it got colder, you were less affected by seasonal residents. But that's really changed over the years as the areas have gotten built out as it's gotten more expensive to be further down south.

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We've seen more of the northern part of the state be developed and have a large portion of seasonal residents. Look at the villages, look at Ocala, look at some of these pockets that are catering to seasonal residents today and that those market areas have changed. So it's really spread throughout our state and it does affect many different markets.

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These are also people who then when they're here, are spending money in other communities and traveling to other communities. And they may not be tracked by some of these tourism numbers as we spoke about. So we just have a mass of people who come down and they get sort of hidden in these numbers. They're not in the full time resident numbers, they're not in the tourism numbers, they’re this other category.

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There are ways to attract seasonal residents, but many people choose not to look at that information. They rely on this more generalization that they hear. And I grew up in Naples, which has a very heavy seasonal influence, and you would hear people speak about how the population expands. But it was this generalization. You know, people just sort of spew out a number.

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it doubles, it triples. And then occasionally there would be a study that was conducted by the county or the local, you know, visitor bureaus and things of that nature. But it wasn't consistent. We couldn't rely on seeing this growth or those numbers. There are ways to look at these numbers and look at the growth, but most people do not look at that information.

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They rely on the generalization. And you can also do much more detailed sales analysis to look at how existing stores are operating, how the inventory is selling through, to understand when they're here and when they're not. So let's talk about timing of the seasonal resident. We talked about these windows that they come down and the windows are generally dictated by how the economy's doing.

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So we start to see people coming down earlier toward the October and November time frames if the economy's very good and we start to see them waiting until after the holidays, until January and after New Year's, if the economy's not doing so good. And sort of to explain the rationale behind this is if you come down here early, you may have children and grandchildren or other family or other people you may want to be around during the holidays that aren't here.

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And so we see people who travel for the holidays. Maybe the family comes down here to see them and have the holidays down here. Maybe they go and visit them back where they live and they fly back. So after they've come down, they may also go back home to spend these holidays or vice versa. But when the economy is tighter, when money is tighter, people don't want to spend the money on flying.

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So they delay their trip. So maybe they delay it and they have Thanksgiving at home, maybe they have Christmas at home and then they come down after the new year. So when the economy is not doing so well, we really see people pushing the seasonal residency to a start in January. And it also is at that time when it gets really unbearable in these other areas, it gets really cold and you don't want to be there.

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And if there are renting a seasonal rental, it also helps control that cost. They don't have six months of costs. They now have four months of costs. So depending on the economy, we see longer seasonal periods and smaller seasonal periods and it can really affect how much sales are happening in each of these communities. My old boss always mentioned that Florida was the first in and the first out of economic crisis.

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So as a whole country we were sort of the leader is the first one in and the first went out. And I think that's a very smart statement. And that statement is surrounding around our reliance on these seasonal residents, our reliance on the tourism market. And these are things that can be flexed with economic need. So when the economy is softer, you can pull back on these, you know, non-necessities, right, of tourism and seasonal rentals.

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And then as the economy starts booming more, these are the first things you want to go back to. You want to come to Florida, you want to come on vacation, you want to come here and be out of the cold. You want to come here and rent a second home for 4 to 6 months of the year. So you really have to think about that

00;24;08;23 - 00;24;29;29

these factors are highly related to the overall macro economy. And that macro economy really does filter down into local communities within Florida. One thing that I think will be interesting to sort of observe is we're already starting to see this as work from home has become more popular and the younger population has had access to work from home.

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You've seen a shift of more seasonality with younger people. Generally we see that the age of people who are seasonal residents who are coming down here part time are retirees. It's once they have that flexibility, but something that has really changed since COVID and the expansion of work from home was younger populations being able to come down here and enjoy a more seasonal time of year in time will tell if that continues and time will tell if that is influential.

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We are still a retirement based seasonal resident population and that probably will be for for some time. But we're starting to see that there are younger people who are now able to take advantage of seasonal residency, are able to come down here for longer periods of time. And that really has changed and expands that portion of the economy even more for us.

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There's more people to come down. So it will be interesting to see how that plays out. And if we continue to have more flex with that, I think we're going to, especially as more and more people continue to choose to not have children, that they'll have more flexibility. They won't have their kids in school. They'll be able to come down here, rent a house for a few months and really live the lifestyle that they they choose to live during that time.

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In addition to expansion in this younger segment, the baby boomers are continuing to retire. They are huge generation. There's a large amount of people that will continue to retire for approximately the next ten years or the next decade. The younger end of the generation is about age 60, so as these baby boomers continue to retire this large segment of the population, we have potential increases in seasonal residents as well as full time population, as well as vacation, in all aspects.

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Another thing that has really expanded the seasonal market is the expansion of Airbnb and VRBO and the other, you know, short term rental platforms. And while there's a lot of headlines that talks about how they're being restricted, I've actually noticed how much more accepting the municipalities are, how much more accepting the zoning is, and even the HOAs of having short term rentals.

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And this also continues to drive more of a younger population because they can come down in shorter time periods, they can come down using an app or an online platform, which they prefer, and they just provides more access to different people to become seasonal residents. So you're probably at the point where you're like, okay, I get it. There's tourism, there are seasonal residents, but why does this matter?

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I understand they're here, but you're looking at research and you're looking at who's here and what their attributes are and how much money they make and what their age is and what their needs may be based on those demographics. And you're looking at a 1 and a 3 and a 5 mile or a 10, and a 15, 20 minute drive time area.

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These numbers aren't included. The demographics on these tourists, the demographics on these seasonal residents are excluded from these numbers. And it really skews who's in that market. And what I often see is that there's real estate committees and national tenants often have an office somewhere else and not in Florida. And a lot of the decision makers may not even come to the market.

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They may not even see the store. And they're looking and they're relying on information on full time residents. I see real estate brokers who are in the market who still rely on full time residency, and they look at this information that excludes these other factors and they're saying, well, we can't go to that market because the income is just too low or the age is not what we want it to be.

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There's not enough population. I don't know how anyone is making it there. There's other factors driving retail sales, driving profitability. So other people have figured it out sometimes or you see the converse where people are going, Well, the only place to go in Pinellas County is probably Fourth Street because they're the only place I really see the income being a mass that I can support

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putting a store and having it fit my typical demographics that I may put throughout the country. But then they they go to that area and they see it not perform maybe as they thought it would, and then they've limited where else they would go. Well, we can't go anywhere else because of back to work. If that met our demographics, we we can't possibly go to anywhere else in the area and we're just not a fit for this area.

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It's not as good as everyone saying. So you see a lot of misunderstanding because we're only looking at the segment of the population. We're not understanding it based on what the needs of the community are. We're only looking at one portion of that community. So what if your store has the potential to have 20% out of area, 50% out of area, but you don't take the time to understand who that consumer is and serve that consumer.

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Maybe they're already coming to your store, but you don't understand, again, their needs. So maybe you don't deliver the inventory when they need it. Maybe you miss out on months, maybe you have inventory spoilage because you had it here when no one was buying it. And so it's really important to try to get a grasp on who your consumer is and what the market potential of the consumer is, not just who's coming through your door, but who else is available to drive more sales.

00;29;49;11 - 00;30;06;27

We started talking about two factors at a very high level. We talked about tourism, we talked about seasonal residents. We talked about how the person making those purchasing decisions may not be who you think they are. It may not be their full time resident. And there's ways that you can look at this. There's ways that you can analyze seasonal residents better.

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There's ways that you can analyze tourism better. There's ways that you can analyze your own sales data better to understand the market. All we're talking about today is, is there something that you're missing at your store? Are you missing reaching a seasonal resident? Are you missing reaching someone who's on vacation? Are you underestimating those affects in your markets?

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Is there potential for you to increase your sales and increase your profit? And does this change how you invest in real estate or your marketing or your inventory? Maybe we have to continue to ask questions to dig deeper to get to the bottom of how this affects our retail. Our restaurants are other types of stores that are in shopping centers and get more information and find out what that potential is.

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And we want to continue that conversation through this podcast. So why a podcast, why am I here? Why am I doing this? What motivated me? Well, we already talked about that this was this conversation that kept coming up, and I keep having it. It's not very efficient to have it with each individual client over and over and over again.

00;31;17;09 - 00;31;36;10

I was even on a panel and we're having that conversation on a greater scale, and we're talking about how unique Florida is and was a fabulous panel. We had Woolbright Development, we had Bealls, we had Dutch Brothers, Coffee, we have myself, and we're talking about all this uniqueness that happens in Florida and why it's so hot in retail right now.

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But it was truncated. It was just a short conversation? We could not have the full discussion, so that's why I'm here. I want to have a more full discussion. I want to talk to different perspectives. I want to hear about from real estate and marketing and inventory and operators and landlords and tenants and have all these different perspectives that we can talk about.

00;31;57;23 - 00;32;21;25

And together we can go on discovery and find out who the Florida consumer is, what their needs are, and how to better serve them. But we can't do this without your support. This is our first episode. People don't know about us yet. Please share this with your friends, with other people you know in the industry. Help us get the word out so that we can reach the potential of this conversation.

00;32;21;27 - 00;32;52;16

Like, comment, and subscribe to the podcast, make a comment, make it interesting, make it arbitrary, make it good. We want to hear from you. We want to continue this conversation with your support. So what's next? Where do we go from here? Well, we're going to have one episode a month, so our next edition will be our May edition episode, and we're going to talk about growth and how growth is everywhere in Florida, but also hidden and really misunderstood.

00;32;52;19 - 00;33;28;00

And we're going to have a conversation about how it affects Florida retail.

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